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Global rate monitor
the easing cycle has turned

The energy shock from the US–Iran conflict reversed the direction of travel. The ECB has hiked, the BoJ has hiked, Bank Indonesia is hiking to defend the rupiah, and futures put roughly 78% odds on a Fed hike by September. China runs the other way — deflation, a growth undershoot, fourteen months frozen.

The six majors

Policy · inflation · real rate

Real rate is the policy rate less inflation — the actual cost of money. Yields appear only where a verified market quote exists. The blanks are real gaps in free data, not omissions.

Policy against inflation

The zero real-rate line

Every point uses only two series that genuinely exist for every country: the policy rate and headline inflation. The diagonal is where they are equal. Above it, policy is restrictive in real terms. Below it, the central bank is subsidising borrowers whatever its headline rate says.

Asia

Asia splits in two. North Asia normalises upward on wages and currency defence. Southeast Asia has low inflation but hikes anyway, because the dollar and oil squeeze the current account.

EconomyPolicyInflationRealDirectionNote

Europe

The ECB hiked 25bp in June and held on 23 July at a 2.25% deposit rate — its first tightening since 2022–23. Switzerland sits at zero with no conventional room left.

EconomyPolicyInflationRealDirectionNote

Read-through

  • The US 2-year trades above the funds rate. Two-year Treasuries yield 4.19% against a 3.50–3.75% target. The front end does not price hikes as possible — it prices them as done. Roughly 45bp of tightening already sits in the curve.
  • China is the whole hedge. Inflation near zero, Q2 GDP at 4.3% — weakest since the 2022 lockdown quarter — and fourteen months of unchanged LPRs. Every other major fights imported energy inflation; China fights its absence. A PBoC easing move is the one thing that breaks the global correlation.
  • Japan's real rate stays deeply negative even after the hike to 1.00%, with core inflation near 2.8%. That is the carry trade's fuel supply. The yen has passed 159 with Goldman calling 165.
  • India is the deliberate outlier. Governor Sanjay Malhotra calls the pressure largely supply-side and tightening premature. An FY27 CPI forecast of 5.1% against a 4% target with a 5.25% repo puts the real rate near zero — a bet that the oil shock passes through.
  • Watch bear steepening, not the level. The US 30-year is above 5.09% with the 10-year at 4.58%. Long-end selling on inflation and fiscal risk, rather than a front-end rally, is the dangerous version of a steepener — and it is the one in play.

Primary sources

Live layer. The wire pulls the Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and BIS release feeds directly, refreshing every three minutes. Because browsers block cross-origin requests, it routes through a public read-only proxy and tries three in sequence. If all three are unreachable it falls back to the curated summary below and marks itself OFFLINE rather than showing stale items as fresh.

Data honesty. Sovereign yields appear only for the United States (2Y 4.185, 10Y 4.583, 30Y 5.096, 14 July 2026) and Japan (10Y JGB 2.468). No free source publishes comparable 2-year sovereign yields for the other economies, so those fields are blank rather than filled with a proxy. Inflation figures marked ° are carried from recent reporting rather than a confirmed print. Policy rates are confirmed through 24 July 2026 and change roughly eight times a year per bank — they are not, and cannot be, streamed live from any free source.

Correct naming. China's primary policy rate is the 7-day reverse repo, not the Loan Prime Rate — the PBoC made that switch formal in July 2024, with LPR and MLF in supporting roles. India's corridor is SDF 5.00 / repo 5.25 / MSF 5.50. The ECB figure is the deposit facility rate. The Fed figure is the target range midpoint.